How will the defunct ‘kingmaker’ alliance affect Turkey’s elections? | electoral news

The first round of Turkey’s key presidential election saw a third nationalist candidate and his alliance potentially emerge as a determining force in the fate of the runoff that will take place on Sunday.

In polls on May 14, incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan got 49.5 percent of the vote, while the main opposition alliance candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, got 44.8 percent.

The third candidate, Sinan Ogan, who was not a familiar figure to the Turkish public before the polls, won 5.2 percent of the election with the backing of the newly established ultranationalist ATA Alliance, led by the Victory Party. of Umit Ozdag, a veteran veteran. correct politician. The alliance won 2.4 percent of the vote in parliamentary elections on May 14.

With such a result, the Nationalist candidate and the alliance emerged as potential kingmakers after the first round, until their recent spat, that is.

Analysts say some of their votes came from supporters of a fourth candidate, Muharrem Ince, who withdrew from the race days before the first round, as well as some younger people who don’t like both Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu. .

Mesut Yegen, a sociology professor at Istanbul’s Sehir University, said there is a voting bloc that does not want to see any of the main contenders for president and is not impressed with Turkey’s main political parties today.

“Many of them have secular sensitivities and are therefore against the religion-based conservative politics pursued by Erdogan and his Popular Alliance,” Yegen told Al Jazeera.

He added that this group is also concerned about the support of the Kurdish People’s Democratic Party for Kilicdaroglu and the cooperation between the two parties.

Ogan, an international relations academic, entered parliament in 2011 with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), Erdogan’s closest ally and his party today, before launching an unsuccessful bid for its leadership in 2015 after being which was expelled

He had been away from politics since then until he was named a presidential candidate through a deal he reached with Ozdag.

Meanwhile, Ozdag, a professor of international relations, is a former deputy head of the MHP who later took the same position in the IYI Party, which is in Kilicdaroglu’s alliance, before being ousted and establishing the Victory Party in 2021.

The party has won public support by using ultranationalist rhetoric in a country hard hit by its worst economic crisis in decades, and by embracing anti-refugee sentiment that is spreading rapidly among struggling Turks.

ultranationalist platform

According to Etyen Mahcupyan, a political analyst and writer, Ogan did not have a significant voter base before the polls, and if he did not agree with Ozdag on his candidacy, the latter would have found another contender to side with.

“Ogan’s name might mean something only to people in narrow nationalist political and academic circles, but Ozdag and the Victory Party have actually established a voter base,” Mahcupyan told Al Jazeera.

Ogan and Ozdag’s election campaign platform strongly opposed Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AK Party).

Their agenda revolved around a promise to send millions of refugees in the country back to their home countries and used harsh language towards “terrorist” groups, as well as what they allege is corruption and nepotism in government. .

However, in an unexpected twist on May 22, Ogan endorsed Erdogan in the runoff, leading to the end of the ATA Alliance on the same day.

Ogan told a televised news conference that “stability” played an important role in his decision, noting that Erdogan’s alliance secured a parliamentary majority at the May 14 polls. The politician did not reveal any possible promises made by Erdogan to side with him.

“It is important for the stability of the country that the majority in parliament and the president are from the same alliance,” Ogan said, calling on people who voted for him to support the incumbent in the runoff.

Ozdag disagreed, saying that Ogan’s position was his own. Two days later, Ozdag endorsed Kilicdaroglu at a joint press conference after the two politicians signed a memorandum of understanding.

The agreement includes strong statements on the repatriation of refugees in Turkey within a year, the fight against corruption, nepotism and “terror”, as well as the protection of the unitary nature of the Turkish state.

different paths

Mahcupyan said the ATA Alliance, which existed for just two months, could have played a key role in the vote, but individual agendas led to its downfall.

“It appears that Ogan thought about his own individual career without concern for future voter support while making the decision, with the goal of returning to the MHP and continuing politics there. He perhaps sees himself as the next party leader,” he said.

“However, the Victory Party has grown its organization and built a voter base as an opposition party,” the analyst continued.

“Umit Ozdag has objectives for his party and wants it to stay afloat after the polls, so he has to support the opposition, along the same lines that the party has established until today.”

The big question a day before the key vote is what effect this split in the potential “king-making” coalition will have on the outcome of the runoff.

Yegen said the vast majority of Zafer Party voters will back Kilicdaroglu after the deal between him and Ozdag, and after the main opposition candidate has taken an attractive stance to them over the past two weeks.

He added that the rest of Ogan’s voters can respond in three different ways in the runoff. “Some will lean towards Erdogan, others will move in the direction of Kilicdaroglu, while the rest will not go to the polls,” Yegen said.

Mahcupyan noted that most of those who vote for Ogan do not have an emotional connection to him. “They voted for him because they wanted a third path separate from the other two candidates,” she said.